Ponte Academic Journal Jul 2017, Volume 73, Issue 7 |
ASYMMETRIC EFFECT OF OIL PRICE UNCERTAINTY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH BY GMM Author(s): Naser seifollahi J. Ponte - Jul 2017 - Volume 73 - Issue 7 doi: 10.21506/j.ponte.2017.7.31 Abstract: Abstract
The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of oil price fluctuations and the asymmetric effects of oil price fluctuations (asymmetric effects of oil shocks on the difference between the effects of its positive and negative impacts) on economic growth in the seven selected countries exporter of oil (OPEC) based on the maximum information available during the 1961-2015 period Use of generalized torque model (GMM panel data).
In this research, the oil price asymmetry is firstly estimated using a non-uniformity model of the conditional exponential variance. EGARCH model shows that the model is asymmetric and the effect of positive shocks than negative shocks. The effect of shocks is positive and negative on positive economic growth, but the effect of positive shocks on negative shocks has a greater impact on economic growth in these countries. there is a negative relationship with economic growth and oil price uncertainty. Based on the Pedroni co-integration test, there is a significant relationship between the variables of the model that is due to the nature of each country. Based on oil price uncertainty coefficient, the GMM model to increase economic growth in selected countries of OPEC to reduce oil price volatility and reduce oil price volatility increases economic growth.the results of panel EGLS using as short-term results, in the long run the show that between oil prices uncertainty and economic growth there is a negative relationship. the economic growth with a lag period, the highest share in its economic growth.
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