The constructing of effective and flexible mechanism for assessing the socio-economic efficiency of regions development is one of the most important problems in the current situation in Russian economy. In a variety of economic indicators, a significant role in the assessment of development of the region is given index “Gross Regional Product". Positive dynamics of GRP depends largely on the innovative activity of region. Innovations are considered as an essential element of economic growth. So it is important to ensure more active participation of business in the commercialization of scientific research, technological and management innovation, the establishment of modern goods and services. At the same time innovations cause structural shifts in economy and affect the intensity of regional development. In this regard the assessment of structural shifts influence on GRP is a point of particular importance. This paper examines the question of prediction the value of Gross Regional Product which is one of the main indicators of effective and quality development of economics. There are a lot of techniques using for economic forecasts. The article under study deals with one of such techniques – construction of econometric model that reflect the dependence between several macroeconomic parameters. The base of model creation is software package GRETL.

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