Ponte Academic Journal
Aug 2020, Volume 76, Issue 8


Author(s): Leyla Huseynova

J. Ponte - Aug 2020 - Volume 76 - Issue 8
doi: 10.21506/j.ponte.2020.8.3

This study aims to identify the econometric analysis of dependencies in the tourism sector of Azerbaijan. The main priorities for the development of the tourism sector defined in the Strategic Roadmap for the development of the specialized tourism industry of the country were investigated in the chosen study. Based on a systematic analysis of indicators of the tourism sector, it was revealed that there is a dynamic development of the main indicators of this sector, particularly, in the income of travel agencies in recent years. However, such a positive trend is not observed for some indicators of the tourism sector. The research paper considers the tourism sector as a complex economic-cybernetic system and mainly examines the quantitative relationship between the core indicators of the tourism sector based on the correlation-regression model analysis of econometric modeling. The degree of stationary and the integration of the tourism sector into time indicators are assessed based on the “DickeyFuller” test. The article builds a linear model of the dependence of the income of travel agencies based on exogenous parameters including the cost of trips, the number of agencies, the number of tourists sent, the number of national parks, the volume of investment, and the US dollar exchange rate. The analysis of the statistics of this model revealed that the model has poor quality characteristics, especially more prone to multidimensionality. Therefore, the systematic refinement of the model was carried out by removing some exogenous parameters from the study. Because of this algorithm, a new reaction of the multiple regression model is obtained, which meets all the conditions of the Gauss-Markov theorem and is consequently adequate to the real economic situation in the country’s tourism sector and suitable for forecasting this sector.
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