This article focuses on a brief critical analysis of the theory of Singular Spectrum Analysis and the problem of distinguishing cyclic components from a general dynamics of economic situation. As a solution to this problem the asynchronous harmonic analysis algorithm based on spectrum analysis and decomposition filtering algorithm has been proposed. This research is based on fundamental works by foreign scientists and research workers. The aim of this research is to identify and evaluate the cyclic component and prospects of social and economic development of Azerbaijan based on the analysis of the most important GDP indicator. As a result of the research, several economic models have been designed and important cyclic dependencies have been identified. Also, an econometric analysis of models with relevant conclusions has been performed. Calculations and graphs have been made by free software, i.e. the statistical environment R, which is one of the most dynamically developing programs in its class. In the course of the study, the main parameters, general trends, seasonal and cyclical components of Azerbaijan's GDP for the period of 22 years, between 1997 to 2019 have been identified. The comprehensive econometric tests carried out during the research showed that the designed econometric models correspond to all basic ideas of econometric analysis including the conditions of specification, parameterization and verification, and prove to be reasonable for the real economic situation in the country. The findings of the research, with regard to their practical significance, can be successfully applied to analyse and predict the socio-economic development potential during the diversification of the economy of Azerbaijan. The results, suggestions and recommendations obtained in this research can be used in shortterm and mid-term planning of the main indicators of social and economic development of Azerbaijan.

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