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Ponte Academic Journal
Dec 2017, Volume 73, Issue 12

FORECASTING THE DYNAMICS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS RURAL MUNICIPALITIES IN CONNECTION WITH MEASURES OF STATE SUPPORT

Author(s): Dordzhiyeva Olga Borisovna ,Dordzhiyeva Baina Viktorovna

J. Ponte - Dec 2017 - Volume 73 - Issue 12
doi: 10.21506/j.ponte.2017.12.47



Abstract:
This article presents the results of the economic and mathematical analysis of the municipal districts of the Republic of Kalmykia on the basis of the main economic indicators. The statistical analysis revealed some links between the indicators of socio-economic development of the Kalmyk Republic\'s regions, which can be used to predict future states of these areas. Low values of coefficients of determination of indicators are caused by a large amplitude of fluctuations in the levels of time series. In this case, the introduction of cyclic components as an objectively existing trend due to the shortness of time series can not be considered correct. On the basis of the factors determining the dynamics of socio-economic development of the Kalmykia regions, a grouping of districts was carried out and econometric indicators for each individual group were presented. In the course of the study, two positive feedback loops were presented, which can perform the functions of a multiplier. The conclusion concludes that the values, as well as the signs of the main econometric parameters of the activity of the municipal districts of the Republic of Kalmykia, vary depending on the tightness of the connection of nearby indicators. Thus, the presence or absence of the effect of multiplication in the context of individual regions is expedient to be established during the implementation of the forecasting procedure.
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